The Great Housing Reset 2026: Now Begins the Time of the US Homebuilders!
The fallen mortgage rates and the structural shortage of new constructions lay the foundation for a multi-year upswing in US housing starting in 2026.
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The stocks of US homebuilders have long been a problem child. High mortgage rates, which remained around 7% in January 2025, and skyrocketing material costs have drastically dampened consumer sentiment. However, the recent interest rate cuts by the Fed have initiated a decisive turnaround. The decline of 30-year fixed mortgages to 6.2% is the signal the market has been waiting for. In my estimation, we are at the beginning of a major housing reset cycle – a multi-year phase of normalization that is likely to gain momentum in 2026. The fundamentals...
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